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  •  Obama did win the MO primary but he again (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    jgtidd

    dominated only in KC and STL. He fared miserably in the rural part of the state.He only won six counties in the state, but the population allowed him a 10K vote win there.

    Rural MO Democrats voted for Hillary. She carried many rural counties that supported McCaskill in 2006, but rejected McCaskill in her 2004 gubernatorial run. So Obama is going to have to improve his appeal in those parts of MO.

    It is the same problem that occurred in rural OH and PA outside of the SE PA region. How does Obama improve his standing among those voters?

      •  We'll get some racists (13+ / 0-)

        who might choose the Republican under those circumstances.

        But we'll bring enough Democrats back into the fold -- along with the indies and disaffected Republicans that Obama does so well with -- to win the election.

        •  I Really Hope You're Right (0+ / 0-)

          But, living in a "red state," I'm not as optimistic.

          "I am the one who speaks for the spirit of freedom & decency in you." Hunter S. Thompson

          by CityLightsLover on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:38:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It depends (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          jgtidd

          Hillary's demographics in PA lay with older, Catholic, blue collar male voters. The question is if they will vote for Obama since they seem to be the ones most likely to believe he is a Muslim or that he espouses Liberation Theology and all the other GOP talking points.

        •  some racists? Holy cow (3+ / 0-)

          If you think it's only racists who will choose McCain over Obama, a one term senator lacking in experience on the national level, you are REALLY out of touch with regular voters.  Or does it automatically make someone a racist if they don't vote for Obama?

          •  I can't see any other reason why (5+ / 0-)

            a Democrat would choose McCain over Obama.

            Republicans will go for the Republican for a whole host of reasons...

            •  we're talking about swing voters (0+ / 0-)

              rural white folks in Missouri could be Dems, Reps or unaffiliated.  This election will be one by who gets out their base and pulls the most swing voters.  It's completely missing the point to talk about Dems voting for McCain.  

              •  Do you enjoy talking with yourself? (0+ / 0-)

                My point was there are racists in the Democratic party -- not just in MO, but nationally.  I don't expect Democratic racists to vote for Obama.

                I do, however, expect Obama to do a good job consolidating the rest of the (non-racist) Democratic base.

                I also expect him to do boatloads better than Hillary pulling in indies and disaffected Republicans.

                Obama is far and away our best candidate, even despite his handicap that certain racist whites will never vote for him simply because of his skin color.

                •  Talking with myself? How silly (0+ / 0-)

                  What are you talking about?  Disagreeing with you means I'm talking with myself?  Or is it just unacceptable to counter orthodoxy on this site?  Ridiculous.

                  You think Obama will do better in pulling in Indies.  The original point was how well he would do with rural whites in Missouri, and similar states.  I think he has suffered some damage with that group of voters.  If they vote for someone else, it will not necessarily be a matter of racism.  

                  •  Sheesh. Am I supposed to take you seriously? (0+ / 0-)

                    The link in my previous comment goes to you saying this:

                    Obama has done better with independents and (disaffected) Republicans

                    So, apparently, you also think:

                    Obama will do better pulling in Indies.

                    As for the history of this thread, it goes back to me responding to DHinMI's comment that once we are down to a Democrat and a Republican borderline Dems will have to decide which way to vote.  His comment was in reply to one by oceanstar17, who very clearly was musing on what would happen with rural white working class voters in MO, OH, and PA.

                    My reply, to put it in full context, then, was that we have little to worry about.  Some of those people are racist and will not vote for Obama.  Others are indies and disaffected Republicans, but not racists, and will likely be susceptible to Obama's message.

                    My sense is that he wins more indies and disaffected Republicans than he loses white racists.

                    Your problem with that analysis is what?  That white racists exist, and that their voting decisions are influenced by their racism?

                    •  Well, that's up to you (0+ / 0-)

                      but I remain impressed by how dismissive and arrogant Obama supporters on this site can be--and weak on the details of an argument.

                      It's really not a difficult argument.  I said that IN EARLY PRIMARIES Obama did better with independents and (disaffected) Republicans.  (So much for acknowledging context).  Times have changed since the EARLY primaries.  Swing voters include the unaffiliated and lightly affiliated Dems and Repubs.  I think these swing voters are now LESS susceptible to Obama's message than they were months ago.  

                      And we weren't talking about Indie voters in general==we were discussing white, rural voters.  The initial implication was that a white Dem who crossed to vote for McCain would have to be a racist.  That is tautological.  You have no problem with Repubs voting for Obama because they see him as inspiring.  Some Dems will vote for McCain because they see him as more experienced, or tougher, or whatever.

                      Yes, I believe white racists exist and I believe some will refuse (or simply be less likely) to vote for Obama as the Dem nominee.  But to assume that there are no other reasons is prejudicial and simplistic.

                      Here's an idea.  Make an argument on the merits and be so convincing there will be no reason to rely on anonymous ad hominem attacks or speculate on whether I enjoy talking to myself or am unworthy of being taken seriously.  I think your arguments will be taken more seriously if they stand on your own.  Another benefit is that you'll have to work a bit harder to make them do so.      
                       

          •  This experience meme is ridiculous (4+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            scrape, litho, anth, Dragon5616

            Do you go for the candidate who counts in her "experience" union busting corporate law and six years of almost purely ceremonial First Ladying, followed by a highly ineffectual legislative record in the Senate?

            Or do you go for the one who had eight years of hyperactivity in the Illinois Legislature, including getting a major reform bill on videotaping police interrogation with unanimous votes of both houses of the legislature over opposition from the governor, followed by a US Senate term that includes progress on issues ranging from nuclear proliferation to health care?

          •  Some will choose McCain (0+ / 0-)

            simply because he's a Pug.  They could run Elmer Gantry and some wouldn't think twice about voting Pug.
            But for the vast majority of those weighing their decision, the race question is preeminent when they think about voting away from the Pugs.
            Just as it was for the white, blue collar Pennsylvanian democrats who miraculously support the NAFTA candidate.  No other explanation.

          •  i hope (0+ / 0-)

            we don't start liberally throwing around the "racist" word from here to November. It's a gross over-simplification and it totally destroys the capacity to have a dialogue when you go around calling people you disagree with a racist. Even if they are a racist, it still ceases any chance for a dialogue.

            STOP it. Do Obama and the Dems a favor. We don't want people to assimilate Obama with Al freakin' Sharpton, ok.

      •  and they choose the Republican (0+ / 0-)

        •  OK (3+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          sphealey, MAORCA, Dragon5616

          So what you're saying is Hillary's support is based on Republicans?  Or that people really want to bomb Iran?  

          The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

          by DHinMI on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:59:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'll speak for myself, thanks (0+ / 0-)

            You offer a simplistic answer to the question of where certain groups of voters who support Clinton in a primary (in this case, white rural voters in MO) will go in November.  Your solution is Hillary drops out and
            they choose between a Dem and a Repub, implying that they will then choose the Dem.

            Why?  I say they are more likely to choose McCain.  And you take your simplification to another level: that these folks must then be Republicans or want to bomb Iran.

            Do you see why some folks no longer take you seriously?

            No, Hillary's support is not based on Republicans. In fact, in key early primaries she has done better among self-identified Democrats and Obama has done better with independents and (disaffected) Republicans.  The white rural voters in Missouri are swing voters, many unaffiliated.  Unaffiliated swing voters will determine the outcome of the election.  There is very good reason to fear that they will judge Obama lacking in experience and will vote for McCain--not because they want to bomb Iran.  There are other reasons to vote for McCain--not very good ones, in MY opinion, but then that's really not that important in terms of a general election    

    •  How does HRC improve her standing (13+ / 0-)

      among AA's, the young, more educated?  You can flip your contention the other way around.

      John McCain: Vowing to connect real leaders with real bowels

      by chicago minx on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:07:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well (16+ / 0-)

      you have to understand how to win Missouri.  

      The areas that Hillary won in the Democratic primary are the Republican parts of the state. No Democrat is going to carry 95% of those counties  - no matter how good the Democrat is.

      For a Democrat to win Missouri he/she must win Kansas City and ST. Louis and Boone County. They need to win there STRONGLY.  And they need to try as hard as they can to cut their losses in the rest of the state.

      Both Obama and Clinton have negatives in the red parts of the state so the question will be how good either of them would be at getting out a HUGE vote in the cities and Boone County.  

      Obama proved he can get out the vote where it's needed in Missouri.  Keep that in mind.

      •  I know that (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        aimeeinkc, Dragon5616

        However, there is also a stretch of counties that radiate to the SW of STL that McCaskill lost in 2004 but won in 2006. Also the counties to the extreme SE of the state that border AR are also important to win. SW MO is heavily Republican.

        •  Yes you're right that Hillary (9+ / 0-)

          carried the very few rural counties you would want to be able to get but just because one Democrat won them in the primary doesn't mean the other Democrat can't win them in a General.

          And in the extreme SE of the State (where I have family ) the Republicans irrationally hate Hillary.  Irrationally. Hate. Her.  It's beyond belief what they say.  I don't think it's at all likely that she could carry those counties in a GE.  Obama may not be able to carry them either because of racism.  But he can make it up in the bigger vote turnout he'll get in the cities.  

          •  He will need to win those counties that (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            Dragon5616

            radiate to the SW of STL and those counties in SE MO if he is to win. Boone, STL City, STL County, and Jackson County aren't enough to win MO in a general election.

            McCaskill's 2004 showing isn't enough to win MO. Obama will need to win rural counties in MO that McCaskill won in 2006.

            •  Yes (13+ / 0-)

              And there is no evidence that just because those voters preferred Hillary in a Democratic primary that they would refuse to vote for Obama in a general election.

              Let me be frank.  You can carry all of those few counties and lose Missouri BIG if you can't get big turnout in the cities.  You can't win the cities without the African American vote.  Unless Obama voluntarily drops out of the race and gives it to Hillary - at this point Hillary can't win Missouri.

              •  Obama can win Missouri in the (7+ / 0-)

                metro areas with big black turnout plus crossover independent and Repub support in St. Louis Co, Franklin and St. Charles Co.  Also he needs to boost himself in NW Missouri.  The Northern Missouri rural areas are more like Iowa than Arkansas and much less hostile to him.  

                John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

                by IhateBush on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:30:35 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  That's one way (9+ / 0-)

              The other way is for Obama to turn out 150% of the normal vote in St. Louis and St. Louis Co., and win usually Repub St Charles Co and Franklin Co.  

              Kerry got 46%.  If Obama gets 200 K votes in St Louis instead of the 145K Kerry got (turns out conservative blacks who voted for W on gay marriage), takes 60% instead of 54% in St. Louis Co, and wins enough crossovers in exurban areas like St. Charles and Franklin to carry them, he wins the state.  Kerry got 41% in those counties.  McCaskill got 44-45% there.

              John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

              by IhateBush on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:28:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

                but those counties that radiate to the SW of STL seem to be key swing areas. Whoever wins those counties win the states. I think that Obama needs to win there to carry MO in the general election.

                •  No he doesn't (0+ / 0-)

                  he needs to do well in some rural areas for sure, but he has much better opportunities to improve over Kerry in Northern rural Missouri, which is more like Iowa and less racist or even in the heavily Repub SW Missouri than in Dixiecrat SE Missouri.

                  SE Missouri is Dixiecrat, and Obama isn't going to do that well there.  If he does as well as Kerry did there, that would be very satisfactory.  Swinging independents and moderate Repubs is a better strategy.

                  The difference is clear, Obama wins Iowa by 10%, while he loses Arkansas by 20-25%.  You go where the votes are, and that is in the St. Louis suburbs and exurbs and in the Northern Missouri rural areas.  Obama will likely swing many independents and Repubs in the STL and KC areas.  

                  If Clinton is the nominee, then you go after SE Missouri, but her performance in the St Louis suburbs and exurbs, full of Clinton-hating independents and Repubs, will be weak.  

                  John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

                  by IhateBush on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:41:25 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

                    Look at how Kerry and Gore failed in MO. Look at how McCaskill fared in 2004 and in 2006. McCasskill won STL and KC. She won Boone County. She also won a swath of counties that radiate to the SW of STL. She won counties in SE MO near the AR border. Those counties tend to swing elections there. Whoever wins those counties wins the state. Obama needs to play well there to win. STL, KC, and Boone county aren't enough. Doing as well as Kerry did there is not "very satisfactory" because Kerry lost MO.

                    •  It is quite satisfactory (0+ / 0-)

                      if you are able to compensate in other areas.  

                      If Obama does much better than Kerry in the StL suburbs, exurbs, the KC area, and in the 6th and 9th district rural areas including Boone Co, in the Jefferson City area, and in SW Missouri, Obama doesn't need to do any better in Dixiecrat SE Missouri.

                      It's not just STL and KC, although turnout could be through the roof in the cities, it is the suburbs in those areas.  Obama has the potential to blow McCain out there.  The middle class suburban and exurban independents and moderate Repubs are sick of W and Repub policies, and Obama is a pleasant inspirational guy that they mostly like.  The wingnuts (60% of Repubs) hate him, but the moderates and the reasonable conservative Repubs don't.  (Obama really suffered in the Philly suburbs that it was a closed primary, the suburbs are Republican and independent in registration but consistently vote Democratic.)

                      There will be lots of cross party voting this year if Obama is the nominee, Democrats going for McCain, many Repubs for Obama.  If Clinton is the nominee, it will be a one way stream, Democrats for McCain, and huge Repub turnout for McCain.  If Gore is the nominee, probably little cross party voting, but the Repub base wouldn't excited either.

                      John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

                      by IhateBush on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:05:30 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  Irrational hatred of Hillary (2+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            sagra, v2aggie2

            is not limited to SE Missouri, if ya know what I mean.

        •  Are You Dumb or Dishonest (11+ / 0-)

          The entire premise of that Clintonian bullshit line is laughable.  The only way Obama's "weakness" in those counties in a Dem primary will hurt him in a general i if the people voting for Clinton will in the general vote for McCain over Obama.  And if they would vote for McCain over Obama, they'll vote for McCain over Clinton.

          Either deal with the logical extensions of your "argument":

          Hillary Clinton can't win, because she couldn't beat Barack Obama among younger voters.

          Hillary Clinton can't win, because she couldn't beat Barack Obama among black voters.

          Hillary Clinton can't win, because she didn't win the primaries in Illinois and Maryland and Connecticut, and Democrats can't win if they can't win those solidly Democratic states in a general election.

          Hillary Clinton can't win, because any state or demographic group that went with Barack Obama didn't simply prefer Obama, they opposed Clinton.  Therefore, all Democratic primary voters who didn't vote for Clinton, like people for whom the Iraq war is the most important issue or members of SEIU, are possible or maybe even likely McCain voters in November.

          ...or give it up.

          The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

          by DHinMI on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:24:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  which is classical GOP strategy (5+ / 0-)

            large turnouts historically favor the Democrats while smaller turnouts benefit the GOP who seem to better energize their party faithful. The Democrats depend on new voters, young voters and occasional voters which mean large turnouts.

            I don't see how Hillary can retain those voters in a GE and how her candidacy would not lead to a smaller turnout.

    •  And btw (15+ / 0-)

      Claire didn't win many rural counties.  She focused on outstate rural counties in 2006 NOT to win them but to keep her loss there to a minimum so that the cities could take her over.  She was successful.

      Both Hillary and Obama have negatives in rural counties.  The fear about Hillary is focused on the Republicans.  You want to depress Republican turnout in the rural areas.  They hate Hillary and most of us think they will come out just to vote against her.  Sure the Dems. in those counties would vote for her - but there aren't that many Dems in those counties.

    •  This whole rural/urban split is a BS media (4+ / 0-)

      fantasy.  Everyone has such a short term memory.  Remember in Nevada when Clinton was in favor of the Culinary Workers lawsuit to shut down on-strip voting locations because she was worried that urban voters would go for Obama in huge numbers; she ended up WINNING Clark County (with Las Vegas in it) and losing the other eleven rural counties, giving Obama the delegate win in the state.  Plenty of other rural areas in other states went for Obama over Clinton, accounting for nearly the entire fourteen state lead he has over Clinton today.  I thought this was a reality based community, now we're parroting MSM misreporting and taking it as gospel?  Awful.

      Obama/McCaskill vs. McCain/Jindal? Call it a funny feeling.

      by ShadowSD on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:34:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  rural/urban split is real (5+ / 0-)

        MSM obfuscation is in confusing the results of a primary with the results of a GE. Somehow they cannot understand that a primary is only among a party as opposed to a general population.

        Therefore it is specious to argue which Democratic candidate tracks best in a Red county when the county will go McCain in the GE.

        •  Agree on that (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          Dragon5616

          But rural and urban counties have NOT acted uniformly even for the primary, and I hope you did not intend to imply that misconception.  As I just pointed out, the rural/urban split in states like Nevada was diametrically opposite to that of Ohio and Pennyslvania.  Different parts of the country are different.

          Obama/McCaskill vs. McCain/Jindal? Call it a funny feeling.

          by ShadowSD on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 10:01:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  the real question is if the choice is McCain (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Involuntary Exile, Dragon5616

      or Obama which do they choose?  McCain's only chance is to attract the Reagan Democrats and independents. So do Hillary's people go to which candidate?

      The talking heads keep missing the point that primaries are within the same party but the GE is between parties so how many people will jump parties?

    •  I live in Missouri (9+ / 0-)

      Last night I attended a "Back to Blue" fundraiser in Cass County.  This is the county immediately south of Kansas City.  

      I was talking to a Clinton county delegate.  She clearly recognizes that Clinton has lost. I have met a number of Clinton supporters here who recognize she has lost.  The activists in the party will support whoever the nominee is in the local fundraisers I have attended.  The bitterness we have seen here and at MDD just doesn't exist on the ground in Missouri.

      Remember that the Missouri Central Committee chose Susan Montee, the auditor, as a superdelegate and Montee was the first statewide office holder to endorse Obama.

      You forget that Obama had to be everywhere on super Tuesday.  That he won at all in Missouri was due to McCaskill, I believe.

      Something else to remember is that voter registration in Missouri closed in early January before the universities were back and a lot of organization of voter registration could happen.  And, Obama carried the county the University of Missouri is in.

      Also, Edwards dropped out late.  If you look at the absentee ballots cast, you will see Edwards getting about 8 percent.  On election day, that fell to about 1 percent with Obama picking up most of that vote.  

      There will be a huge voter registration effort in Missouri that will energize the base and bring in independents, some Republicans, and the under-30 vote in numbers we have never seen.  

      Everyone in Missouri sees the passion gap between the Republicans and Democrats.  There is also a passion gap between Obama and Clinton supporters here, but that is another matter.  And, it helps us that the Republicans have a primary fight to determine their candidate for Governor.

      Obama will take Missouri if Clinton's recognition that she is lost is cordial and gracious.

      One more thing.  At this fundraiser was a superdelegate who has endorsed Clinton.  I reminded her that she must not split the party and supporting a candidate who has fewer pledged delegates will do just that.  She replied that we have to look at the popular vote.  I responded that is OK but you cannot count Florida and Michigan because YOU (she is a member of the DNC) sanctioned them.  No response.  Finally I said I cannot go door-to-door urging people to vote for someone who was not the first choice of the Democrats in sanctioned DNC primaries and caucuses.  (Note: I did not say I would not vote for that candidate.) She had no reply.  

      I have no problem in telling superdelegates the consequences of taking the nomination away from the candidate who has followed the DNC rules.  The if-U arguments of the Clintons are not persuasive.  Remember if Democrats were Republicans, Clinton would be ahead in delegates as Jon Stewart observed this week, Clinton would be ahead.

      Wer kämpft, kann verlieren. Wer nicht kämpft, hat schon verloren. Bertolt Brecht

      by MoDem on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:44:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't forget, too... (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, ck4city

        that a lot happened since Feb 5 to further alienate Dem voters from Clinton. (It just gets worse and worse as time goes on. I think on Feb 5, I could count on both hands reasons why I would not vote for Clinton... now, I don't have enough fingers and toes to count the reasons or ways she disturbs me...)

        I agree with everything you posted, but wanted to include that I think the tone and tactics of the Clinton campaign is really turning a lot of people off. I think there are quite a lot of people who voted for her on Super Tuesday that now regret that vote, or who are having a change of heart.

        My son, daughter, and I will be working hard for Obama when he is the nominee. We have lots of Republican friends that we think are convert-able.

        I think he will win Missouri. :)

        •  Correct (0+ / 0-)

          I have had people who voted for Clinton on February 5 tell me they regret their vote.

          I wear an Obama button wherever I go.

          Wer kämpft, kann verlieren. Wer nicht kämpft, hat schon verloren. Bertolt Brecht

          by MoDem on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 11:31:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  that's not the point (0+ / 0-)

      of the article, i don't believe. The point was that a hillary top heavy ballot brings out voters to vote against her, not necessarily FOR the R candidate. That and indies in purple/red states don't like Hillary and will vote against her fellow local D running in that race.

      This issue is reason enough for me not to want Hillary at teh to of the ticket. Does she care...hell no. If she cared she never would have run for President because everyone knows about the polarization that will overtake the nation for the next4-8 years if she is the prez. We will lose the house id '10 if she gets elected president.

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