Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (GA) and Rep. Chet Edwards (TX) were eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Russ Feingold (WI) and Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA) rotated in to replace them this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) was eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM) was eliminated in the previous round, and Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Gov. Brad Henry (OK) was eliminated in the previous round, and Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (VT) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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The Obama campaign has been pretty successful at being leak-free on the running mate front. Only two or three people outside of the candidate have a clue as to his thinking, and they aren't talking. That doesn't mean people like me can't have a little fun, and make idle speculation about the person who Obama will choose to run for Vice President. Here are the top twelve, as I see them:

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the second-tier possibilities for Obama's v.p., from my new slimmed-down field of 28.

This elimination series will begin with the bottom 14 names, then eliminate the bottom vote-getter(s) and replace them with new names from just up the list for the next thread, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter(s) may not be the ones cut for the next--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this elimination series's votes). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the top 13 average vote-getting possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls, plus Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM), who I think needs another round of voting to get a good average before I cut the field down.

Next thread I'm going to narrow the field from three to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again of the 28 or so total threads in this elimination series.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the the top 12 possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls. 12 instead of 14 because of a three-way tie for thirteenth place, and because I want to work in Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM), the most plausible candidate I haven't polled yet.

I'll alternate "break-out" polls with the top average vote-getting candidates for two more threads after this. I'm going to do the top governors/former governors and one more top candidates' thread before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Talking Points Memo has an article up (via the AP) confirming that Chris Dodd has been asked to submit paperwork to Obama's VP search committee.

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll be polling the the top possibilities for Obama's v.p. with experience in foreign policy/national security. I did not include state chief executives, who are commanders-in-chief of their states' National Guards, but who will be considered separately in two threads' time.

I'm still alternating "break-out" polls with the top 14 average vote-getting candidates in these threads' polls, averaging in each day's votes as we go. I'm going to do the top governors/former governors before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to just two tiers--that's if Obama hasn't decided by then, of course. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers of 14. So that'll start three more threads away from today.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe ___ ___ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more veep speculation! Last thread we considered the top military veteran candidates to be Obama's v.p. Averaging in those votes yielded the same top 14 average vote-getters overall as the thread before that, so we'll consider them again in today's poll.

I'm still alternating "break-out" polls with the top 14 average vote-getting candidates in these threads' polls, averaging in each day's votes as we go. I'm going to do the top possibilities experienced with foreign policy/national security issues and governors/former governors before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to just two tiers--that's if Obama hasn't decided by then, of course. I'll reset the averages then, too. So that would be three or four more threads away from today.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe ___ ___ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Johnny/Jane Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more veep speculation! Last thread we considered the top Western candidates to be Obama's v.p. Averaging in those votes yielded the same top 14 average vote-getters overall as the thread before that, so we'll consider them again in today's poll.

I'm still alternating "break-out" polls with polls of the the top 14 average vote-getting candidates from these threads, averaging in each day's votes as we go. I'm going to do the top military veterans, those experienced with foreign policy/national security issues, and governors/former governors before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to just two tiers--if Obama hasn't decided by then, of course. I'll reset the averages then, too.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe ___ ___ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Johnny/Jane Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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The Netroots in Missouri has taken great issue with many of Sen Claire McCaskill's higher profile votes since we dumped money, time and effort into finally getting a Democratic Senator elected from Missouri.

Given her seeming intransience on fighting the FISA bill, is it any wonder some of us want to know more about her voting record on all the issues?

I'm using a broad database provided by the Washington Post but would love to see a site that has more detailed analysis.

Welcome back for more veep speculation! Yesterday we considered my own top picks, which got some mixed reviews. Averaging in those votes yielded a slightly different top 14 average vote-getters overall as the thread before that--namely, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg dropped down a spot, and Fmr. Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ) moved up into the top tier--so we'll consider this new top 14 in today's poll.

I'm still alternating "break-out" polls with polls of the the top 14 average vote-getting candidates from these threads, averaging in each day's votes as we go. I'm going to do the top Westerners, military veterans, those experienced with foreign policy/national security issues, and governors before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to just two tiers--if Obama hasn't decided by then, of course. I'll reset the averages then, too.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe ___ ___ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Johnny/Jane Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more speculation! As promised yesterday, today we'll be polling my personal top 14 possibilities for Obama's v.p. This is the first time I've listed just my personal top 14, so you can see my true biases and whether you agree. (They are not those I necessarily consider most likely to be chosen.)

I'm still alternating "break-out" polls for a while longer with the top 14 average vote-getting candidates in these threads' polls, averaging in each day's votes as we go. I'm going to do the top Westerners, military veterans, those experienced with foreign policy/national security issues, and governors before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to just two tiers--that's if Obama hasn't decided by then, of course.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe ___ ___ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Welcome back for more veep speculation! Last thread (two days ago) we considered the top Southern candidates. Averaging in those votes yielded a slightly different top 14 average vote-getters overall as the thread before that--namely, Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) dropped down a few spots, and Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg moved up into the top tier--so we'll consider this new top 14 in today's poll.

I'm thinking of running some more "break-out" polls in the coming days, alternating with the top 14 candidates, averaging in each day's votes as we go.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe ___ ___ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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Let us review the most recent occasion an insurgent won the Democratic nomination against bitter and organized establishment opposition. It was 1972 and George McGovern, caretaker of the Kennedy delegates after California in 1968, had been given the party rules committee slot that would have gone to RFK and, failing that, should have gone to Gene McCarthy. In the 1972 primaries McGovern used his knowledge of the rules to defeat the presumptive nominee, Hubert Humphrey, with an outbreak of enthusiasm Humphrey could hardly understand, much less emulate.

But then at the convention he tried to reach out to the establishment wing of the party by nominating a labor hack, Tom Eagleton of Missouri, as his running mate. It was a sickening blow that the old politics delivered straight to the reform breadbasket. It also showed that McGovern did not have the strategic cunning or the tactical brass to dance with who brung him.

I haven't seen this diaried yet so if I'm repeating.

In the latest Survey USA poll Obama is +15 over McCain in the great state of Washington.

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