Original title: BREAKING: Bush still unpopular (Survey USA)

OK, maybe it's a little late for this to be "breaking".  Survey USA came out with the numbers early Tuesday morning.  The weighted average for the President's approval rating is up a percent this month at 38%, largely due to improvement in the populous blue states of CA, IL, and PA.  Here is the map:

Bush's July numbers are up at the Survey USA website.  The weighted average is unchanged from last month at 37%.

Bush got slightly less unpopular in most states, but this was offset by declining approval in the populous states of California, Texas, Illinois, Ohio, and Florida.   Bush's numbers have sunk to a record low in my home state of Illinois.  On the other hand, what's the matter with Utah?  The map:

Survey USA just put the results of the latest Bush approval ratings up on their website.  The weighted national approval number is:

37%

I've gotten used to seeing the numbers go down every month, so this isn't what I was expecting.  But as a man of science, I do not shy away from an inconvenient truth.  Bush's approval edged up last month.  Here is the map:

Survey USA released the May poll results yesterday, showing Bush approval numbers for all 50 states.  The map:

The bottom line: Weighted national approval is 33% -- a new low in this survey.  Read on...

I'm an infrequent diarist, preferring to post my rantings on my own little, seldom-visited blog.  Earlier today I posted my thought on this Day without Immigrants, and -- what the hell -- I'll share them with everyone here...

It would have been interesting to go downtown today and take part in the immigrant rally.  But I've got meetings I couldn't get out of.  My act of defiance will have to be limited to blogging on company time.

The Chicago demonstration begins at Union Park, and the march to the lakefront will go past what remains of Haymarket Square (a mile east of Union Park).  I'm sure May 1 was chosen to coincide with International Workers' Day; the proximity to where it all started, 120 years ago, might be just an interesting coincidence.

I've heard some criticism that the protesters ought to be at work or in school rather than out in the streets.  The same was said of the civil rights marches in the '60s.  But social justice doesn't wait for the end of the shift or for the school bell.

More across the border...

Today's Chicago Tribune reported that President Bush gave a Chicago P.O. box as his address on this year's tax form.  Maybe someday I'll head down to the post office and make a pilgrimage to his "home".  Or maybe I'll just buy some stamps.  The post office is located, appropriately enough, where the Eisenhower Expressway meets Congress Parkway.  And on the map, it's a few blocks to the right of both Clinton and Jefferson.

Some excerpts from the article on the flip:

Before I head off to Wisconsin for the weekend, I thought I'd offer another diary entry, probably the last before the election.  Lately I've run across a surprising number of people who plan to vote for Bush and give the following reason: "Bush got us into this mess [in Iraq]; he should be the one to get us out."  --Sigh--  ...I just feel I must say something to counter to the many, many times I have heard this nonsense.

This sentiment, which contains a logical flaw, appeared in a letter to the editor in the Chicago Tribune a while back, and later a reader sent a rebuttal.  I don't have said rebuttal in hand, but I can paraphrase... (continues below)

I've been doing some Monte Carlo simulations on the poll numbers and thought I'd share them for the fellow kossacks.  I'm not a statistician, so maybe someone out there can comment on any deficiencies that might exist in the methodology.

I do realize that the polls might all be crap.  And I can think of half a dozen reasons why off the top of my head.  We've heard the refrain "The only poll that matters in the one on November 2nd" from both camps.  So in the end, all my analysis is probably just speculative crap.  But some people seem to find the horserace entertaining nonetheless.  In case anyone thinks this is a complete waste of my time, rest assured that I will be making myself more useful this weekend by campaigning for Kerry in Wisconsin.

Today's simulation has the probability of Bush winning at 55.08%, the probability of Kerry winning at 43.31%, and the probability of an electoral tie at 1.61%.  (OK, the Wrong guy comes out ahead in my analysis -- but I suspect Kerry's chances are better than these numbers suggest.)  Methodology and yesterday's results are on the extended entry.  Have fun...