This is my fifth diary on the California US Senate race where incumbent Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) is running for a fifth full term. My first diary discussed the unusual “Top Two” primary system in CA where all primary candidates, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents run in a June “jungle primary”, and the top two face each other in the November general election. There is no Democratic Party primary. It is a process designed specifically to benefit moderates, and candidates like Feinstein who appeals to voters from all parties and independents.
An article in today’s Sacramento Bee discusses a recent poll that showed Feinstein with a significant lead at 28% and de Leon, and Republican unknown James P. Bradley in a statistical tie for second with de Leon at 11% and Bradley at 10%. What perplexes both the poll taker, and CA political scientists, is how Bradley has managed to begin a consolidation of Republican voters, for no understandable reason. The threat to de Leon is that if Bradley is successful at consolidating the GOP vote he will clearly be in the top two. With eleven Republicans on the ballot (along with ten Democrats and eleven Indies and others) no one thought that any single GOP candidate would be able to consolidate enough votes to challenge de Leon for the second spot on the general election ballot. Here is a link to the Bee story, which includes the poll.
www.sacbee.com/...
Recently de Leon received the endorsement of CA Democratic mega-donor billionaire Tom Steyer. It is not yet known what level of financial support Steyer will provide to de Leon, in either direct contributions to de Leon’s campaign, or through independent expenditures supporting him. At the end of March de Leon reported campaign funds of $627,000 (as compared to Feinstein’s $10.4 million). Experts think that Steyer has to spend at least $1.0 million to help insure that de Leon makes the top two, and that de Leon will need $10 million to really complete with Feinstein in the general election. Here is a link to a Politico article regarding the Steyer endorsement:
www.politico.com/…
In addition to the endorsement from Steyer, de Leon continues to pick up solid labor support with endorsements from California SEIU, and the California Nurses Associates, two politically powerful CA labor unions, who should be helpful to de Leon, with GOTV and volunteers.
As I noted in my first diary on this race, before Feinstein had any serious opponents announce their candidacy, California is a very costly state for candidates. We have four, separate, expensive broadcast/media markets, and the population is so large that retail campaigning doesn’t really work. de Leon lacks both cash and name recognition, a challenging tandem for any California candidate running for state-wide office. Even though de Leon held the top spot in the California State Senate, he is not widely known outside his state Senate district in Los Angeles.