The horse race isn’t really relevant right now. For one thing it can change, for another swing states are what matter, but there’s a lot more to polling that is of interest.
Last week Kerry Eleveld, a DK staffer here made a post showing how polling showed that this presidential election is more about who you are against, than for. Also I noticed the polster (our own Civiqs) honed in on abortion. Abortion isn’t a top issue maybe, but it’s an issue that voters overwhelmingly trust us on more than the other guys. I thought Kerry’s post interesting and Civiq’s close look at abortion helpful. It’s not about who is half a point ahead in April.
This Emerson Poll has a Biden/Trump number of course with a 1% difference but they are mainly interested in economics, and they do some polling to help inform.
Economists and many partisans are flummoxed over why it is that the economy polls badly when all signs are that things are going swimmingly. Employment up, inflation down, etc. Forget the idea that it’s the media, or propaganda, or people are stupid. These are real people with real lives, and real serious concerns, and they might well be just as bright as you.
Who needs to work overtime? Who even works a 40 hour week anymore? Hourly wage workers that punch the modern equivalent of a time clock, they enter their password on some computer. Notice what happens when hours shoot up way over 40. Those are the people working two part time jobs with an employer who is avoiding paying health insurance.
Look at those folks at 60+ hours a week, they are working their asses off, desperate, young kids maybe or a car payment plus rent.
One of my kids goes to a school rated almost at the top in the US for return on investment for a public school. Those kids on average go on to make close to six figures with a bacherlors, and that’s the average. At nights and weekends my kid works at a Wendy’s, he says it’s like two different worlds. My kid worries there is a whole generation of kids being mostly left behind. A few will do very well, most will struggle to stay afloat working when very tired without much hope for a better life. Millennials and Gen Z.
Look at these numbers.
These income classes are how people rate themselves. 38% rate themselves below average income. 17% above average, and 44% average. Many feel like they are doing worse than other people. If you draw a line above the red bars and the blue bars the trend is striking. It’s normal for everyone to figure they are middle class, phrasing it differently, gives a different perspective.
We need to win back the working class. Obama did it, ran on health care. We aren’t that far behind. An overwhelming electoral advantage of the working class would make the odd senator or congressman voting against a bill irrelevant. People need wages more than anything, and job security.